BANGLADESH is likely to be one of the worst victims of climate change. Due to its low elevation, large parts of the country may get inundated as a result of sea level rise, forcing millions of people into an exodus. Melting of the Himalayan glaciers may dry up the Himalayan rivers completely during the winter months. At the same time, excessive precipitation during the summer may aggravate flooding.

These radical changes in the weather pattern may disrupt the country's agriculture, economy, ecology, and life in general. Further temperature rise may cause new problems of disease and epidemic in this tropical country. All in all, climate change poses a serious calamity of probably catastrophic proportions for Bangladesh.

It is ironic that Bangladesh is going to be one of the worst victims of climate change when she is one of the countries least responsible for this change. It is the greenhouse gas emission (GHG) by the developed countries over the last 250 years (since the Industrial Revolution) that has resulted in the current high atmospheric concentration level of CO2, causing the climate change.

It is, therefore, the responsibility of the developed countries to arrest climate change by drastically reducing their GHG emissions. Bangladesh needs to raise a strong voice in international forums, urging developed countries and other large emitters to reduce their GHG emissions.

Unfortunately, even if mitigation measures get momentum in the coming years, some climate change has become inevitable, because the high GHG concentration already reached has set off certain processes that are now irreversible, at least in the short run. Second, reductions in GHG emission (under the Kyoto Protocol, and the Protocol that will eventually replace it) will occur in phases, so it will take some time before the atmospheric GHG concentration level stabilises and, hopefully, starts to decrease.

This inevitability of climate change to a certain degree in the near future implies that alongside demanding mitigation at the international level, Bangladesh also needs to work toward adaptation and mitigation at home.

So far, the climate change issue has elicited in government and non-government circles mainly enthusiasm about seeking financial assistance from donor countries for various "adaptation" purposes. Thus, Bangladesh has participated eagerly in various international and bilateral conferences and has pleaded for financial help and compensation.

What is, however, more important is to look inward and find out what the country itself can do to confront the climate change challenge. Unless a national vision is developed through domestic introspection, outside money may not be that effective.

Bangladesh's experience with water development efforts illustrates this lesson very clearly. After spending millions of dollars and about twenty percent of national development budget each year on various water development projects for almost half a century, the country is witnessing aggravation of flooding and spread of water-logging. It is important for Bangladesh to avoid a repetition of this sorry experience with regard to her efforts to confront climate change effects.

The experience so far does not seem to be that promising in this regard. Bangladesh's response is being shaped largely by foreign advice and funding, and incorrect ideas are finding their way into that. For example, Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), the document that the government recently prepared for participation in the "UK-Bangladesh Climate Change Conference: Bangladesh Facing the Challenge," held in London in September, puts a lot of emphasis on embankments and polders as adaptation measures.

Yet, the geological history of the Bengal delta shows that sedimentation caused by the Himalayan rivers is the most important bulwark that this delta can have against the rising sea level caused by global warming. Embankments are harmful to this process because they obstruct the sedimentation process.

Also likelihood of the Himalayan rivers having excessive flow in summer and becoming completely dry in winter makes it even more imperative for Bangladesh to make it easier for the river flow to spread across the floodplains in the summer and to be able to retain much of this overflow for use in the winter.

BCCSAP's emphasis on embankments is, therefore, erroneous, because embankments cordon off floodplains from river channels and thus obstruct the river flow from spreading across floodplains during the summer and in turn deprive the floodplains from sedimentation and other beneficial effects of river overflow.

The climate change challenge, therefore, shows that Bangladesh needs to abandon the current cordon approach to rivers and to adopt open, ecological approach that preserves and enhances organic connection between river channels and adjoining floodplains. The above example concerning approach to rivers shows that outside financial assistance will not be effective unless Bangladesh sets its domestic policies correct.

What is, therefore, important is to conduct a national introspection and find out what is wrong with domestic policies in different sectors and how these can be changed in order to confront the challenges posed by climate change.

Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon (Bapa) and Bangladesh Environment Network (Ben) have taken initiative to hold a national conference on "Climate Change and Bangladesh's Domestic Tasks," in order to facilitate national introspection and develop a national vision regarding how to prepare the country better for the climate change challenge. It will be held on in Dhaka.

The conference will bring together climate change experts from both inside and outside Bangladesh. Bangladesh has significant domestic expertise with regard to climate change issues. Many Bangladeshi scholars have contributed to the IPCC and other international climate change discussions and negotiation processes.

Meanwhile, many Bangladeshi scholars working abroad have also developed significant expertise on the climate change issue. The conference plans to combine the domestic expertise with the expertise offered by diaspora Bangladesh to formulate a better national response to the climate change challenge.

However, Bapa and Ben believe that environmental problems, including that of climate change, cannot be solved through discussions of experts alone. The solution requires wide participation of the public, including political parties and their leaders. After all, it is the latter who are expected to provide leadership to Bangladesh's efforts to survive through climate change.

The conference will, therefore, invite representatives for various segments of the society, including political parties. The conference will also enlist participation of representatives of local communities of various parts of the country likely to be more affected by climate change so that they can inform from their first hand experience about various changes that are occurring in their respective areas, from the coastal region of the south to the haor areas of the north.

It is expected that, through a shared discussion of experts and public representatives from various cross-sections of the society and various parts of the country, it will be possible to develop a national vision and a concrete strategy about how Bangladesh can confront the climate change challenge.

The country is supposed to have an election and an elected government soon. It may be hoped that the discussions and recommendations of the conference will prove helpful for the new government in charting the future course of the nation with regard to the climate change issue.

Bapa and Ben are inviting all who have expertise and interest in the climate change issue to take an active part in the conference of January 2. Let's hope that the climate change challenge will summon the best of the nation in order to ensure that the nation survives!

[For further details about the conference, please contact Dr. M. A. Matin, BAPA General Secretary (e-mail: memory14@agni.com ). Those abroad, please contact Dr. Dipen Bhattacharya, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA (E-mail: tishan2@yahoo.com )]



 

S. Nazrul Islam is Coordinator, Bangladesh Environment Network (BEN).

E-mail: s_n_islam@yahoo.com